A Terrorist Threat Testing Scenario
To illustrate the future ScanMaris outputs, a fictive terrorism threat scenario is presented. The goals are to demonstrate that fused data from different sources contribute to detection and expertise of abnormal behaviours.
The maritime zone is the Aegean Sea where numerous ferries and tankers are navigating. The figure 6 provides the possible deployment of the conventional coastal and high frequency surface wave radars to observe the entire area.
Figure 6: Radar coverages of Aegean Sea
The successive abnormal behaviours detected are:
- N°1; Southern mouth of the Bosporus; tanker boarding by a fast boat (after the return of the pilot boat).
- N° 2; 5 hours later significant change of course of the tanker in open sea.
- N°3; 2 hours later another significant change of course in open sea.
- N°4; 3 hours later tanker stops at the limit between the open sea and Greek territorial water.
- N°5; 1 hour later tanker shifting of speed and course while entering into Greek territorial water.
The chart below gives the tanker’s route history, including localisation of the anomalies and the ferry’s itinerary.
Figure 7: Tanker track and anomalies
In the timeline of the events, data are acquired to provide auxiliary information in order to expertise the encountered anomalies and upgrade the alert level until decision for intervention. These information are:
- The Ataköy marina (650 harbour berths), destination of the fast boat, is located near the Atatürk international airport.
Figure 8: Ataköy marina
- From the LLOYDS on line data base is downloaded the tanker file.
Figure 9: Tanker descriptive file
- The ship-owner of the tanker is contacted and gave the information stating that the oil tank is empty. The last report communicated by the captain, nothing to declare, is date one day before.
- The sailing conditions in the vicinity of the Gulf of Thermaikos are goods with a maximum wave height of 1.5 meter.
- Port of Thessaloniki is contacted and informs that the ferry has onboard 1350 passengers and 238 vehicles.
As soon as the second anomaly had been noticed, the Hellenic Merchant Navy Ministry and the Turkish Ministry for Transport have been informed to activate their terrorism reaction plans.
The chronology and the nature of the detected abnormal behaviours of the tanker present the following profile:
- Boarding of the tanker by pirates/terrorists at the Southern mouth of the Bosporus.
- Diversion of the tanker in open sea.
- Threat of collision, attack/destruction by night, while approaching the Gulf of Thermaikos (Greek territorial water) of the ferry and its 1350 passengers while ensuring the regular night connection; Thessaloniki to Spokelos.
After the detected fifth anomaly the alert is granted top level, then, recommendations formulated by the decisional authorities are:
- Combined immediate action recognition and air intervention.
- Support by the navy and installation of backup facilities at sea for passengers in distress.
- The tanker is empty and the environment risks (pollution by oil) are very limited.